Changing Fortunes of Donald Trump
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed the hope at “Howdy Modi” in Texas that “Trump Sarcar” might return to power, the criticism was that it was inappropriate for him to side with a foreign leader, not that his judgement about the mood in the US was wrong. Subsequently, President Trump had won more victories like the assassination of Qasem Suleimani without serious consequences for the United States and the victory in the impeachment vote. By the time he came to India for the “Namaste Trump,” the criticism was only that too much attention was being given to him. Nobody said that we were backing the wrong horse. He looked like an easy winner with the eye on the Indian American vote as the icing on the cake of his victory.
When the coronavirus began its dance of death in Wuhan and spread to Europe, Mr. Trump dismissed it as the flu and assured his people that no action was necessary to save precious American lives. He stood firm even when the fire of the coronavirus engulfed the country and the most powerful country in the world became the first in the world in infections and mortality. He became incoherent in his briefings as the ground below his feet slipped away. He launched an attack on China and he threatened India of retaliation if the medicine he wanted was not supplied to him. He withdrew the US contribution to the World Health Organisation, took no initiative to energize the UN Security Council and battled with Governors without an alternative plan. By the time he began admitting the grave danger to life in the US, he had lost his credibility as a leader.
When he shifted from prevention of deaths to energising the economy by opening up the country, the State Governors openly revolted and he masterminded protests against some of the Governors. It was clear that Mr.Trump’s priority was not fighting the virus, but fighting his own re-election. Curiously enough, his approval rating went higher and higher in spite of his sheer incompetence, callousness and criminal negligence. He appeared to be cruising in style toward a second term. Together with his Electoral College advantage, the historic value of incumbency, and Trump’s lavishly financed and unscrupulous campaign, he looked like a plausible winner. Some even expected that more voters would “rally around the flag” at this time of extreme emergency.
The country gradually realised that it was in the wrong hands. Mr.Trump’s medical theories mentioned at his White House briefings were so ridiculous that the status of the presidency hit an all-time low. The way he contradicted the most eminent doctors on medical matters was a disgrace. His championship of hydroxychloroquine to the extent of threatening his “great friend” PM Modi if the medicines were not delivered instantly. More recently, he shocked the entire medical community when he suggested injection of disinfectants as treatment of coronavirus. The least that could be said about the suggestion was that it was dangerous to human health as there were still people in the US who would take the President’s words as the gospel truth!
The wind seems to have turned against Mr.Trump in the last few days. The evidence is beginning to mount that COVID-19 is damaging the economy that Mr.Trump often touted as his supreme achievement. His leadership qualities
have been thoroughly discredited and the frontrunner has suddenly become the underdog. The latest poll suggests that Mr.Trump is losing ground to Joe Biden both nationally and in key “battleground states”. Mr.Trump’s current mediocre approval ratings (at 44-45 percent) are ominous. In traditionally Republican Arizona, a must-win state for Trump, he trails Biden 52 to 43 percent. He’s down by 6 points to Biden in Florida. Biden is ahead in every “swing state”. Still no one is categorical about the end of the Trump Administration in early 2021 because the time between now and January 2021 is too unpredictable.
It is not even certain that a normal election can be held in November. The most authentic medical voice in the US, Dr.Anthony Fauci has predicted that coronavirus will be very much there this fall. The only certainty about the fall election, it seems, is more uncertainty about the state of the post-coronavirus political landscape. “Mark my words, I think he is going to try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can’t be held,” Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, said very recently. Congress would have to pass a new law to postpone the 2020 election and even then would run into constitutional hurdles stating the new Congress must be sworn in on 3 January and the new president’s term must begin on 20 January.
The inauguration date was set in 1933 when the 20th amendment to the constitution was ratified. There have only been 27 amendments in all. To make another, revising the inauguration date, would require approval by a two-thirds majority of both the House of Representatives and Senate, then ratification by three-quarters of the states. Will the two political parties agree to a postponement which might put the Speaker of the House in the Presidential chair? There is no precedent of any Presidential election having been postponed under any circumstance. The midterm elections were actually held during the plague in 1918.
President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are locked in a tight race in six states that will shape who wins the White House in November, according to a new survey. They are virtually tied in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. according to the States of Play poll of swing states released Last week. Trump edges Biden by a 48% to 47% margin across those states, the poll found. With months to go until voters cast their ballots, the poll suggests a neck-and-neck contest for the White House. Even as Trump faces widespread criticism over his preparedness for and response to the pandemic, voters think Biden is better equipped to combat it by only the narrowest of margins. Overall, 49% of respondents from the pivotal states approve of the job the President is doing, while 51% disapprove. He gets similar marks when voters are asked specifically about his response to the coronavirus: 48% approve and 52% disapprove.
Asked about the chances of a second term, an American voter said that a change of President is the minimum compensation that the people of the US deserve for the sacrifice of lives and property on account of his deeds. It will also be an appropriate punishment for a President who sacrificed his country’s leadership of the world, backed off from international commitments and brought the world to the brink of war on more than one occasion. The question remains, however, whether the economic boom he created by bulldozing the environment, exploiting the workers and by building walls while showering tax dollars on wealthy American job-creators will save him at the polls.
==============================================================
The facts and views expressed in the article are that of the author.
